NFL Props: 49.5% Win Rate

Propeller NFL picks went 29066-29623 (49.5%) for the week of Oct 12-Oct 18. Confidence bracket breakdown, stat analysis, and top picks inside.

49.5%
Win Rate
29066-29623
Record
58,722
Props Graded

Propeller NFL analysis had a tough week, finishing 29066-29623 (49.5%) across 58722 graded props for the week of Oct 12-Oct 18. Our 60-69% confidence tier led the way at 54.0% (2494-2123). Interceptions props were the strongest category at 56.6%.

Results by Bracket

Bracket Wins Losses Total Win Rate
60-69% 2494 2123 4617 54.0%
50-59% 26572 27500 54072 49.1%

The 60-69% confidence bracket was the top performer this week, converting at 54.0% on 4617 props. Interestingly, lower confidence picks performed similarly to high confidence ones this week — a pattern we'll monitor heading into next week.

Results by Stat Type

Stat Type Wins Losses Total Win Rate
Rec Yds 8564 8667 17231 49.7%
Receptions 4976 4729 9705 51.3%
Rush Yds 4033 3850 7883 51.2%
Player Reception Yds 2902 2948 5850 49.6%
Player Receptions 2186 2250 4436 49.3%
Pass Yds 1786 2044 3830 46.6%
Player Rush Yds 1218 1655 2873 42.4%
Pass Completions 935 1030 1965 47.6%
Player Pass Yds 848 798 1646 51.5%
Interceptions 719 552 1271 56.6%
Player Pass Completions 342 522 864 39.6%
Player Interceptions 395 347 742 53.2%
Rush Rec Yds 162 231 393 41.2%

Interceptions was our best-performing stat type at 56.6% (719-552). Player Interceptions followed at 53.2%. Player Pass Completions was the weakest at 39.6% — a stat type we'll be watching closely.

Top 5 Wins

#1
Geno Smith
Interceptions OVER 0.5 (Actual: 1.0)
64%
#2
Geno Smith
Pass Yds OVER 169.5 (Actual: 252.0)
64%

Ranked by pre-game confidence score. All picks are verified and graded automatically.

Biggest Misses

#1
Geno Smith
Interceptions OVER 1.5 (Actual: 1.0)
64%
#2
Geno Smith
Interceptions OVER 2.5 (Actual: 1.0)
64%

We show our misses too. These were the highest-confidence picks that didn't hit.

Season To Date

50.3%
Win Rate
158453-156735
Record
316,109
Props Graded

Looking Ahead

This week's 49.5% is right in line with our 50.3% season average across 316,109 total graded props. Our NFL model continues to analyze every prop daily — follow along next week for updated picks and results.

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