NBA Props: 51.4% Win Rate

PropEdge NBA picks went 455-431 (51.4%) for the week of Mar 10-Mar 16. Confidence bracket breakdown, stat analysis, and top picks inside.

51.4%
Win Rate
455-431
Record
886
Props Graded

PropEdge NBA analysis had a modest week, finishing 455-431 (51.4%) across 886 graded props for the week of Mar 10-Mar 16. Our 80-89% confidence tier led the way at 67.1% (53-26).

Results by Bracket

Bracket Wins Losses Total Win Rate
90-100% 2 1 3 66.7%
80-89% 53 26 79 67.1%
70-79% 112 123 235 47.7%
60-69% 161 152 313 51.4%
50-59% 127 129 256 49.6%

The 80-89% confidence bracket was the top performer this week, converting at 67.1% on 79 props. Higher confidence picks outperformed lower tiers as expected — the model's calibration is tracking well.

Results by Stat Type

Stat Type Wins Losses Total Win Rate
Pts+Reb 117 110 227 51.5%
Points 79 88 167 47.3%
Pts+Ast 79 64 143 55.2%
PRA 76 64 140 54.3%
Reb+Ast 37 37 74 50.0%
Rebounds 31 37 68 45.6%
Assists 20 14 34 58.8%
Threes 11 13 24 45.8%
Steals 2 4 6 33.3%
Blocks 3 0 3 100.0%

Blocks was our best-performing stat type at 100.0% (3-0). Assists followed at 58.8%. Steals was the weakest at 33.3% — a stat type we'll be watching closely.

Top 5 Wins

#1
Stephon Castle
Assists UNDER 10.5 (Actual: 10.0)
93%
#2
Jarace Walker
Assists UNDER 6.5 (Actual: 6.0)
92%
#3
Danny Wolf
PRA UNDER 25.5 (Actual: 18.0)
89%
#4
Marcus Sasser
Assists UNDER 3.5 (Actual: 3.0)
89%
#5
Cam Spencer
Pts+Ast UNDER 20.5 (Actual: 0.0)
89%

Ranked by pre-game confidence score. All picks are verified and graded automatically.

Biggest Misses

#1
Jalen Brunson
Pts+Ast UNDER 36.5 (Actual: 38.0)
90%
#2
Quentin Grimes
PRA UNDER 27.5 (Actual: 28.0)
88%
#3
Jalen Johnson
Assists UNDER 9.5 (Actual: 12.0)
87%

We show our misses too. These were the highest-confidence picks that didn't hit.

Season To Date

56.5%
Win Rate
6204-4782
Record
10,986
Props Graded

Looking Ahead

This week's 51.4% dipped below our 56.5% season average, but single-week variance is normal across 886 props. Our NBA model continues to analyze every prop daily — follow along next week for updated picks and results.

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