Propeller MLB picks went 8090-4305 (65.3%) for the week of Sep 28-Oct 4. Confidence bracket breakdown, stat analysis, and top picks inside.
Propeller MLB analysis had a strong week, finishing 8090-4305 (65.3%) across 12395 graded props for the week of Sep 28-Oct 4. Our 70-79% confidence tier led the way at 86.9% (2320-351). Stolen Bases props were the strongest category at 94.4%.
Confidence
| Bracket | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80-89% | 37 | 12 | 49 | 75.5% |
| 70-79% | 2320 | 351 | 2671 | 86.9% |
| 60-69% | 2848 | 1528 | 4376 | 65.1% |
| 50-59% | 2885 | 2414 | 5299 | 54.4% |
The 70-79% confidence bracket was the top performer this week, converting at 86.9% on 2671 props. Higher confidence picks outperformed lower tiers as expected — the model's calibration is tracking well.
Categories
| Stat Type | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 1027 | 477 | 1504 | 68.3% |
| Hits | 744 | 752 | 1496 | 49.7% |
| Singles | 954 | 541 | 1495 | 63.8% |
| Hits+Runs+RBIs | 549 | 883 | 1432 | 38.3% |
| RBIs | 1052 | 319 | 1371 | 76.7% |
| Total Bases | 760 | 548 | 1308 | 58.1% |
| Doubles | 1180 | 119 | 1299 | 90.8% |
| Walks | 851 | 389 | 1240 | 68.6% |
| Stolen Bases | 619 | 37 | 656 | 94.4% |
| Strikeouts Pitcher | 74 | 68 | 142 | 52.1% |
| Earned Runs | 60 | 74 | 134 | 44.8% |
| Hits Allowed | 78 | 46 | 124 | 62.9% |
| Home Runs | 94 | 8 | 102 | 92.2% |
| Walks Pitcher | 48 | 44 | 92 | 52.2% |
Stolen Bases was our best-performing stat type at 94.4% (619-37). Home Runs followed at 92.2%. Hits+Runs+RBIs was the weakest at 38.3% — a stat type we'll be watching closely.
Highlights
Ranked by pre-game confidence score. All picks are verified and graded automatically.
Transparency
We show our misses too. These were the highest-confidence picks that didn't hit.
MLB Season
Outlook
This week's 65.3% is right in line with our 67.4% season average across 3,228,339 total graded props. Our MLB model continues to analyze every prop daily — follow along next week for updated picks and results.
AI-analyzed MLB props updated daily.