MLB Props: 66.5% Win Rate

Propeller MLB picks went 9655-4870 (66.5%) for the week of Mar 30-Apr 5. Confidence bracket breakdown, stat analysis, and top picks inside.

66.5%
Win Rate
9655-4870
Record
14,525
Props Graded

Propeller MLB analysis had a strong week, finishing 9655-4870 (66.5%) across 14525 graded props for the week of Mar 30-Apr 5. Our 70-79% confidence tier led the way at 80.9% (2553-602). Stolen Bases props were the strongest category at 91.7%.

Results by Bracket

Bracket Wins Losses Total Win Rate
80-89% 31 8 39 79.5%
70-79% 2553 602 3155 80.9%
60-69% 4076 1879 5955 68.4%
50-59% 2995 2381 5376 55.7%

The 70-79% confidence bracket was the top performer this week, converting at 80.9% on 3155 props. Higher confidence picks outperformed lower tiers as expected — the model's calibration is tracking well.

Results by Stat Type

Stat Type Wins Losses Total Win Rate
Hits+Runs+RBIs 1064 879 1943 54.8%
Hits 1038 760 1798 57.7%
Singles 991 687 1678 59.1%
Runs 1106 561 1667 66.3%
RBIs 1229 411 1640 74.9%
Doubles 1394 220 1614 86.4%
Walks 1098 459 1557 70.5%
Total Bases 695 450 1145 60.7%
Stolen Bases 616 56 672 91.7%
Strikeouts Pitcher 117 105 222 52.7%
Hits Allowed 108 100 208 51.9%
Earned Runs 108 87 195 55.4%
Walks Pitcher 91 95 186 48.9%

Stolen Bases was our best-performing stat type at 91.7% (616-56). Doubles followed at 86.4%. Walks Pitcher was the weakest at 48.9% — a stat type we'll be watching closely.

Top 5 Wins

#1
Alex Bregman
RBIs UNDER 1.5 (Actual: 1.0)
80%
#2
Nico Hoerner
RBIs UNDER 1.5 (Actual: 1.0)
80%
#3
Oneil Cruz
RBIs UNDER 3.5 (Actual: 3.0)
80%
#4
Drake Baldwin
RBIs UNDER 4.5 (Actual: 4.0)
80%
#5
Davis Schneider
RBIs UNDER 1.5 (Actual: 1.0)
80%

Ranked by pre-game confidence score. All picks are verified and graded automatically.

Biggest Misses

#1
Matt Shaw
RBIs UNDER 1.5 (Actual: 2.0)
80%
#2
Maikel Garcia
RBIs UNDER 2.5 (Actual: 3.0)
80%
#3
Kerry Carpenter
RBIs UNDER 2.5 (Actual: 3.0)
80%

We show our misses too. These were the highest-confidence picks that didn't hit.

Season To Date

66.6%
Win Rate
14404-7238
Record
21,642
Props Graded

Looking Ahead

This week's 66.5% is right in line with our 66.6% season average across 21,642 total graded props. Our MLB model continues to analyze every prop daily — follow along next week for updated picks and results.

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