Propeller MLB picks went 277249-136169 (67.1%) in September 2026. Over/Under splits, confidence brackets, weekly trends, and top picks inside.
Propeller MLB analysis delivered an outstanding month, finishing 277249-136169 (67.1%) across 413422 graded props in September 2026. OVER picks hit at 56.0% while UNDER picks hit at 70.1%. UNDER picks significantly outperformed, a trend worth monitoring. The week of Sep 21 was the strongest at 67.9% (71048-33643). Our 80-89% confidence tier led the way at 95.3% (1619-80).
Direction
| Direction | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER | 50718 | 39774 | 90492 | 56.0% |
| UNDER | 226531 | 96395 | 322926 | 70.1% |
By Category
| Stat Type | Over W-L | Over WR | Under W-L | Under WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubles | 0-0 | - | 28890-4846 | 85.6% |
| Earned Runs | 968-1185 | 45.0% | 1173-1239 | 48.6% |
| Hits | 24013-16117 | 59.8% | 4268-3072 | 58.1% |
| Hits Allowed | 977-747 | 56.7% | 1337-1339 | 50.0% |
| Hits+Runs+RBIs | 13869-12711 | 52.2% | 9919-8252 | 54.6% |
| Home Runs | 10-1 | 90.9% | 29763-4139 | 87.8% |
| RBIs | 17-73 | 18.9% | 30621-12539 | 70.9% |
| Runs | 1211-1463 | 45.3% | 26946-15040 | 64.2% |
| Singles | 596-369 | 61.8% | 24490-18230 | 57.3% |
| Stolen Bases | 0-0 | - | 24229-2067 | 92.1% |
| Strikeouts Pitcher | 2111-1097 | 65.8% | 599-509 | 54.1% |
| Total Bases | 6145-5054 | 54.9% | 18230-14378 | 55.9% |
| Walks | 630-855 | 42.4% | 25649-10448 | 71.1% |
| Walks Pitcher | 171-102 | 62.6% | 417-297 | 58.4% |
Confidence
| Bracket | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80-89% | 1619 | 80 | 1699 | 95.3% |
| 70-79% | 77467 | 13958 | 91425 | 84.7% |
| 60-69% | 104464 | 47295 | 151759 | 68.8% |
| 50-59% | 93699 | 74836 | 168535 | 55.6% |
The 80-89% confidence bracket was the top performer this month, converting at 95.3% on 1699 props. Higher confidence picks outperformed lower tiers as expected — the model's calibration held strong throughout the month.
Categories
| Stat Type | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | 28281 | 19189 | 47470 | 59.6% |
| Hits+Runs+RBIs | 23788 | 20963 | 44751 | 53.2% |
| Runs | 28157 | 16503 | 44660 | 63.0% |
| Total Bases | 24375 | 19432 | 43807 | 55.6% |
| Singles | 25086 | 18599 | 43685 | 57.4% |
| RBIs | 30638 | 12612 | 43250 | 70.8% |
| Walks | 26279 | 11303 | 37582 | 69.9% |
| Home Runs | 29773 | 4140 | 33913 | 87.8% |
| Doubles | 28890 | 4846 | 33736 | 85.6% |
| Stolen Bases | 24229 | 2067 | 26296 | 92.1% |
| Earned Runs | 2141 | 2424 | 4565 | 46.9% |
| Hits Allowed | 2314 | 2086 | 4400 | 52.6% |
| Strikeouts Pitcher | 2710 | 1606 | 4316 | 62.8% |
| Walks Pitcher | 588 | 399 | 987 | 59.6% |
Stolen Bases was our best-performing stat type at 92.1% (24229-2067). Home Runs followed at 87.8%. Earned Runs was the weakest at 46.9% — a stat type we'll be watching closely.
Trend
| Week | Wins | Losses | Total | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 | 65800 | 32951 | 98751 |
66.6%
|
| Sep 7 | 79646 | 39087 | 118733 |
67.1%
|
| Sep 14 | 57261 | 28586 | 85847 |
66.7%
|
| Sep 21 | 71048 | 33643 | 104691 |
67.9%
|
| Sep 28 | 3494 | 1902 | 5396 |
64.8%
|
Highlights
Ranked by pre-game confidence score. All picks are verified and graded automatically.
Transparency
We show our misses too. These were the highest-confidence picks that didn't hit.
MLB Season
Outlook
September's 67.1% is right in line with our 67.4% season average across 3,221,340 total graded props. Our MLB model continues to analyze every prop daily — check back for October's results.
AI-analyzed MLB props updated daily.