Our 2026 MLB season, by the numbers.
Propeller graded 363,508 MLB player lines in 2026, from Opening Day on March 26 through the final World Series game on October 28. The side our research leaned toward landed 67.5% of the time. That headline is real, but it leans heavily on Unders for rare stats, so the details below matter more than the big number.
MLB player lines graded after the games finished.
Stronger scores did better, every step of the way.
Propeller gives every line a 50 to 100 Confidence Score. Higher means the available signals agreed more strongly on one side. Across the season, each step up in score came with a higher hit rate.
| Confidence Score | Lines graded | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any score | 363,508 | 245,271 | 118,211 | 67.5% |
| 55 and up | 292,722 | 208,418 | 84,283 | 71.2% |
| 65 and up | 147,296 | 117,890 | 29,395 | 80.0% |
| 75 and up | 31,298 | 27,863 | 3,432 | 89.0% |
Hit rate is hits divided by hits plus misses. Pushes, where the stat landed exactly on the line, are left out. A Confidence Score is not a win probability, and most of this season's high scores were Unders on 0.5 lines, which come in often for almost any player.
Overs were the hard part.
About 82% of our MLB research this season leaned Under. Those Unders landed 70.5% of the time. The Overs landed 53.5% of the time. In plain terms: calling a player to come up short was easy to get right often, and calling a big game was close to a coin flip with a small edge.
| Side | Share of research | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under / Less | 81.7% | 1,869,748 | 782,817 | 70.5% |
| Over / More | 18.3% | 318,619 | 277,242 | 53.5% |
This split comes from the full 3,248,524 analysis rows behind the season, before repeat snapshots of the same line are combined, so the counts are larger than the 363,508 graded lines above. The public feed only splits Over and Under at that level.
Rare stats look great. Everyday stats are the real test.
Stolen bases, home runs and doubles topped the list. That's mostly baseball, not brilliance: on a typical night most hitters don't steal a base or hit a homer, so the Under on a 0.5 line wins for almost anyone. Everyday stats like hits, total bases and pitcher strikeouts are closer calls, and that's where research has to earn its keep.
| Stat | Lines graded | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stolen bases | 22,183 | 20,396 | 1,787 | 91.9% |
| Home runs | 16,636 | 14,797 | 1,839 | 88.9% |
| Doubles | 32,157 | 27,629 | 4,528 | 85.9% |
| RBIs | 36,753 | 27,021 | 9,732 | 73.5% |
| Walks (hitter) | 33,419 | 23,782 | 9,637 | 71.2% |
| Runs | 37,614 | 24,511 | 13,103 | 65.2% |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 5,519 | 3,289 | 2,217 | 59.7% |
| Singles | 35,690 | 21,196 | 14,494 | 59.4% |
| Hits | 42,118 | 24,955 | 17,163 | 59.3% |
| Total bases | 42,594 | 24,934 | 17,660 | 58.5% |
| Hits allowed | 4,955 | 2,789 | 2,153 | 56.4% |
| Hits + Runs + RBIs | 46,773 | 26,114 | 20,659 | 55.8% |
| Earned runs allowed | 4,668 | 2,564 | 2,104 | 54.9% |
| Walks allowed | 2,042 | 1,073 | 969 | 52.5% |
These 14 stats cover 363,121 of the season's graded lines. The remaining 387 were spread across a few small markets.
Steady from Opening Day to the World Series.
Every month landed between 65.6% and 70.6%. June ran hottest, mostly from a two-week stretch in the middle of the month that came in well above the rest of the season. We haven't pinned down why, so we don't treat it as the normal level.
| Month | Lines graded | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March (from Opening Day) | 11,139 | 7,472 | 3,667 | 67.1% |
| April | 64,227 | 42,203 | 22,024 | 65.7% |
| May | 67,448 | 44,965 | 22,483 | 66.7% |
| June | 63,619 | 44,916 | 18,696 | 70.6% |
| July | 47,618 | 32,389 | 15,218 | 68.0% |
| August | 58,664 | 39,309 | 19,350 | 67.0% |
| September | 47,904 | 32,126 | 15,776 | 67.1% |
| October (postseason) | 2,846 | 1,866 | 979 | 65.6% |
The whole postseason, September 29 through October 28, came to 3,448 lines across 18 game dates at 65.4%. July is lighter partly because of the All-Star break and a gap in our grading from June 28 to July 3.
What these numbers are, and what they aren't.
Past results don't predict the future. The full archive and its rules live on the results page and the track record page, and how grading works has the details.
Questions about the 2026 MLB recap.
How many MLB player props did Propeller grade in 2026?
Propeller graded 363,508 MLB player lines in the 2026 season, from Opening Day on March 26 through the final World Series game on October 28, after combining repeat looks at the same line. 67.5% landed on the side the research leaned toward, with 26 pushes counted separately.
Which MLB props were easiest to get right in 2026?
Unders on 0.5 lines for rare stats: stolen bases landed 91.9% of the time, home runs 88.9% and doubles 85.9%. Most hitters don't record those stats in a given game, so a high hit rate there reflects baseball more than an edge.
How did Overs do compared with Unders?
Overs landed 53.5% of the time and Unders 70.5%, and about 82% of the season's research leaned Under. Calling a player to have a big game was much harder than calling a quiet one.
Does a higher Confidence Score mean a better chance to hit?
In 2026 MLB it lined up that way: 71.2% at 55 and up, 80.0% at 65 and up and 89.0% at 75 and up. The score is still not a win probability, and most high scores were 0.5 Unders.
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