Live Data — Updated From Our Grading Database

Verified Results:
59% Win Rate Across
17,000+ Graded Props

Every prediction is logged before the game starts and graded against real player stats after. No retroactive changes. No cherry-picking. No excluding bad weeks.

Every pick timestamped before game time — graded against official box scores

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Important: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sports outcomes are inherently unpredictable. The win rates and metrics below represent verified historical results and should not be interpreted as a promise of future performance. Any pick'em or sports betting activity is undertaken at your own risk.
17,000+
Graded Picks
59%
Overall Win Rate
8
AI Agents Per Sport
6
Sports Covered

Stats updated live from our grading database. Based on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL, and MLS player prop legs from the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

Performance by Sport

Win rates and graded leg counts across every sport PropEdge covers. All numbers are verified against real box scores.

NFL
Active
58%
Win Rate
3,400+
Graded Legs
Accuracy 58%
NBA
Active
56%
Win Rate
1,500+
Graded Legs
Accuracy 56%
NHL
Active
59%
Win Rate
500+
Graded Legs
Accuracy 59%
MLB
Active
56%
Win Rate
400+
Graded Legs
Accuracy 56%
EPL
Active
55%
Win Rate
200+
Graded Legs
Accuracy 55%
MLS
Building Data
Collecting Data Grading predictions now. Win rate will be published once we have a statistically meaningful sample.

Higher Confidence Predicts Higher Win Rate

This is our most important transparency data. When the engine says 70% confidence, it wins roughly 67% of the time. The system is calibrated — not overconfident, not underconfident.

The Engine Knows What It Knows

Most AI systems are poorly calibrated — they claim high confidence but don't win more often. PropEdge is different. Across every sport and every season, higher confidence picks consistently hit at higher rates.

We track this rigorously. Every prediction has a recorded confidence score. After the game, we compare actual win rates against the predicted confidence — and this relationship holds up across thousands of picks.

"When PropEdge says 70% confidence, it wins about 67% of the time. The gap between stated confidence and actual win rate stays consistently small — that's what calibration means."
Confidence Actual Win Rate Rate
50 – 55%
52% actual
52%
55 – 60%
56% actual
56%
60 – 65%
60% actual
60%
65 – 70%
63% actual
63%
70%+
67% actual
67%

Chart shows actual win rate by confidence bucket across all sports combined, 2025–2026 seasons. Bars scaled relative to maximum observed win rate.

From 44% to 59%: How the Engine Improved

PropEdge launched with equal weights on every agent. The self-calibration process discovered which agents actually predict outcomes — and rewarded them automatically.

Weekly Self-Calibration

After every week of games, PropEdge grades every prediction against real box scores. Then it backtests hundreds of agent weight configurations to find the combination that would have produced the best win rate on historical data.

Agents that consistently get it right gain more influence. Agents that are noisy or anti-predictive get demoted or disabled. This happens automatically — no manual tuning, no stale models.

1
Grade: Every prediction is scored against official stats. Win or loss, no ambiguity.
2
Backtest: The optimizer sweeps hundreds of weight combinations on recent history.
3
Promote: Agents with high accuracy get more weight; noisy agents get less.
4
Deploy: New weights go live for the next week's predictions automatically.
Win Rate Progression Since Launch
Launch
Equal agent weights, model initialized
44%
Month 1
First calibration cycles complete
49%
Month 3
Key agents promoted, noisy agents demoted
53%
Month 5
Cross-sport calibration patterns emerge
55%
Now
Ongoing — still improving each week
59%+

How We Grade Every Prediction

Our grading methodology is designed so that no one — including us — can alter the record after the fact. Transparency is the foundation of every number on this page.

Logged Before Game Time

Every prediction is written to our database with a timestamp before the game starts. Once a game is live, the prediction is locked — no edits, no deletions.

Graded Against Official Stats

After each game, our pipeline fetches official box score data. Each prediction is automatically graded as a win or loss based on whether the player exceeded or fell short of the line.

No Cherry-Picking

Every graded pick is counted — including losing weeks, off-season tests, and new sport launches. We never exclude results that would lower the headline number.

Full transparency, every week: Our grading database is the same database that drives the self-learning engine. Every prediction logged, every outcome recorded, every calibration run visible in the system logs. The 59% number is not curated — it is the raw output of running our engine and grading the results.

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