Every prediction is logged before the game starts and graded against real player stats after. No retroactive changes. No cherry-picking. No excluding bad weeks.
Every pick timestamped before game time — graded against official box scores
See Today's Top PicksStats updated live from our grading database. Based on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL, and MLS player prop legs from the 2025 and 2026 seasons.
Track Record
Win rates and graded leg counts across every sport PropEdge covers. All numbers are verified against real box scores.
Calibration
This is our most important transparency data. When the engine says 70% confidence, it wins roughly 67% of the time. The system is calibrated — not overconfident, not underconfident.
Most AI systems are poorly calibrated — they claim high confidence but don't win more often. PropEdge is different. Across every sport and every season, higher confidence picks consistently hit at higher rates.
We track this rigorously. Every prediction has a recorded confidence score. After the game, we compare actual win rates against the predicted confidence — and this relationship holds up across thousands of picks.
Chart shows actual win rate by confidence bucket across all sports combined, 2025–2026 seasons. Bars scaled relative to maximum observed win rate.
Self-Learning
PropEdge launched with equal weights on every agent. The self-calibration process discovered which agents actually predict outcomes — and rewarded them automatically.
After every week of games, PropEdge grades every prediction against real box scores. Then it backtests hundreds of agent weight configurations to find the combination that would have produced the best win rate on historical data.
Agents that consistently get it right gain more influence. Agents that are noisy or anti-predictive get demoted or disabled. This happens automatically — no manual tuning, no stale models.
Methodology
Our grading methodology is designed so that no one — including us — can alter the record after the fact. Transparency is the foundation of every number on this page.
Every prediction is written to our database with a timestamp before the game starts. Once a game is live, the prediction is locked — no edits, no deletions.
After each game, our pipeline fetches official box score data. Each prediction is automatically graded as a win or loss based on whether the player exceeded or fell short of the line.
Every graded pick is counted — including losing weeks, off-season tests, and new sport launches. We never exclude results that would lower the headline number.
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